Friday, August 31, 2012

Tracking Return on Investment (ROI) Saratoga and Del Mar 2012

I don't always have time to complete full analysis of results but I regularly analyse a period of races at different tracks to understand effectiveness of Horsewin Race Selections and the various factors that are ranked in the reports. Saratoga and Del Mar are very popular race meets that take place from mid-July to early September and both are noted for the high quality of racing.

In 2011, Horsewin Selections and results were tracked at Saratoga. At the end of the meet a 30 %win  had been achieved with a positive R.O.I. based on a win bet on all regular races (non-Steeplechase).

Below are the results to date (August 30, 2012) for both the top and 2nd ranked selections. Proudly, another positive R.O.I has been achieved at Saratoga for 2012 based on top selections with a 30% win at average odds of 2.2 - 1.

Del Mar is a different story where the win % for the top selection has hovered around 25% and produced a negative R.O.I. However, the second pick has achieved a  normal 20% win but unexpectedly produced a positive R.O.I based on generous average odds of 4-1.

More in depth analysis has been completed and shared with subscribers. While some changes and improvement will be made for Saratoga 2013, more significant adjustments will be adopted for Del Mar 2013. The key finding is that speed was a much more significant factor in 2012 as one might guess for a track (both dirt and turf) that produced numerous new track record times.

The Win Ranking is a strong indicator for both Saratoga and Del Mar as approximately 70% of races at both tracks are won by horses ranked in top 4 with average winning odds of 3.6. This factor ranks higher than any other factor that is tracked. Of note also are a few races at Saratoga where profit for the meet was almost guaranteed. For example, on Wednesday, August 29 in Race 7 the top ranked horse and second ranked horse ran in order for a $44 win price and $454 cold exacta. On another outstanding day, a string of 6 consecutive top ranked winners started with a $40 payoff and then the first five winners in the Pick 6 sequence for at least a consolation Pick 6 payoff.

Horsewin Report TOP Selections Returned a Positive ROI at SARATOGA 2011 - Trying for a Repeat in 2012
Horsewin Report Often Picks Against Favorites to Focus on Value Plays
Track Total Races Total Wins Win % Total Return Net Return $2 Win
SAR TOP Picks 365 109 30% $741 +11.00
SAR 2nd Picks 365 57 16% $421.80 -$308.20
DMR TOP Picks 278 67 24% $402.00 -$154.00
DMR 2nd Picks 278 56 20% $560.00 +$4.00


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