Who's on First ? or (Who has beaten Who going into Kentucky Oaks 2012?)

In the Kentucky Derby, 9 of the 20 entrants faced off in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile last fall. In the Kentucky Oaks on Friday, only one filly , Grace Hall ran in this race. She finished 2nd to the 2 yo Champion Filly, My Miss Aurelia. Hard Not To Like ran in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile Filly Turf and was beaten 3 lengths. Grace Hall is one of the Morning Line choices while Hard Not To Like is 20-1, even though she is coming off a 2nd in the G1 Ashland Stakes at Keeneland in her only 3 yo start. If her odds are higher at post, she is definitely worth a play, even with the knocks of trying dirt for the 1st time and only 2nd start of the year against her.


The rest of the field presents an interesting puzzle as there are a number of very talented fillies coming off very good races. Who has beaten who creates a mixed picture for the Oaks.


Grace Hall - has beaten Yara but lost by a neck to Yara in her first start of 2012. Her last victory was in the GP Oaks where won well at the Oaks distance of 9 furlongs.. She also beat And Why Not as a 2 yo in the Spinaway at 7 furlongs at Saratoga.


Broadway Alibi - lost her first career race but is undefeated since. She won the Forward Gal at 7 Furlongs by 17 lengths with Sacristy 3rd. In her last race she won the Gamely at a mile as a prep for this. She has the pedigree to stretch out.


Eden's Moon - has not beaten any major contenders but acquitted herself well in her limited experience. She is trained by Baffert and is a big strong filly who is still developing


Hard Not To Like - is very accomplished on the turf and is trying a dirt surface for the 1st time. She ran 2nd on the poly at KEE to Karlovy Vary in the G1 Ashland in her only 3 yo start. She ran well in the BC Juvenile Filly Turf beaten only 3 lengths.


Sacristy - was 3rd by 19 lengths to Broadway Alibi but is stretching out with a nice distance pedigree.


On Fire Baby - beat Amie's Dini and Colonial Empress in the Honeybee at Oaklawn last out.Last year she beat And Why Not in the Pocahantis at a mile at Churchill. 


Believe You Can - defeated Summer Applause twice at Fairgrounds but also lost by 7 to Summer Applause 2nd back.Last year, she was beaten by On Fire Baby, And Why Not at Churchill at a mile.


Summer Applause - has been 2nd twice to Believe You Can but turned the table and beat that one in her 2nd last race.


Karlovy Vary - is a much improved filly that won her last race at KEE, the G1 Ashland Stakes defeating Hard Not To Like by 3/4 length.At Churchill last fall, she was beaten 12 lengths by OnFireBaby.


Yara - Upset Grace Hall when Grace was making her first start this year. She then lost to Grace Hall at 9 furlongs in the GP Oaks. She also lost to Broadway Alibi and Sacristy on a sloppy track.


Amie's Dini - beat Jemima's Pearl 1/2 length in the Fantasy. She was 2nd by 2 lengths to OnFireBaby in the Honeybee and beat Colonial Empress by many in that same race.


Jemima's Pearl - won her first North American start on dirt at Santa Anita and then ran 1/2 length behing Amie's Dini in a G2 Stakes at Oaklawn. She was transferred to trainer Baffert before that race.


Colonial Empress - no comments to offer but I would be very surprised to see this maiden in the top 5 finishers in the Oaks.


This race sets up very nicely for Grace Hall. She has a strong late pace profile that means that she can conserve herself early and come on in the stretch. She has already won at the 9 furlong Oaks distance on dirt. Many of the other contenders are speed oriented and may fade in the stretch. I suspect that Broadway Alibi will be on the lead in the stretch with Grace Hall running her down. Hard Not To Like should be running on end and is a strong long shot play at 20-1 morning line odds.




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Who's on First ? or (Who has beaten Who going into Kentucky Derby 2012?)

It may helpful in a competitive field with many contenders to do a bit of analysis of who has raced against each other in the past and who has won. I think some clear pretenders emerge from this review and if any of them win on Saturday, I will call them miracle horses. A key race is the B.C Juvenile in which 9 entrants ran including the top 2 finishers Hansen and Union Rags.


1. Hansen - many contenders have ducked running against the 2 year old champ who beat Union Rags by a head in the B.C. Juvenile. Behind Union Rags were Creative Cause, Dullahan, Take Charge Indy, Alpha, Daddy Long Legs, Prospective and Optimizer.


However, more recently, Hansen beat no other major contenders in the Gotham and lost his final prep to a closing Dullahan.


2. Union Rags - lost to Hansen by a neck in the B.C. Juvenile but has beaten Alpha and El Padrino. He ran 2nd to Take Charge Indy in the Florida Derby after a troubled trip - a horse he had beaten in the B.C. Juvenile.


3. Creative Cause - has beaten Bodemeister by 3/4 of a length and lost by a nose to I'll Have Another, one he had beaten as a 2 year old at 7 furlongs. He ran 3rd by 1 to Hansen and Union Rags in the B.C. Juvenile.


4. I'll Have Another - beat Creative Cause by a nose and ran 2nd to him as a 2 year old at 7 furlongs. He also lost to Trinniberg at 7 furlongs in the slop in his first ship east as a juvenile.


5. Bodemeister - ran huge in his final prep in the Arkansas Derby beating Sabercat and Optimizer by many lengths. As noted above, he lost to Creative Cause in his previous start.


6. Gemologist - is undefeated and won the Wood by a neck over Alpha who was 2nd to Union Rags earlier.


7. Take Charge Indy - won the Florida Derby and beat Union Rags and El Padrino in this race. He  previously lost by 2 lengths to El Padrino and was beaten 6 lengths by Hansen and Union Rags in the B.C. Juvenile.


8. Dullahan - won the Blue Grass Stakes with a strong close to beat Hansen. In the B.C. Juvenile, he was 4th beaten by Hansen, Union Rags and Creative Cause. Earlier he had beaten Optimizer but also lost to this horse and Sabrecat in maiden races.


9. Daddy Long Legs - ran poorly in the B.C. Juvenile as a Euro shipper. In his only 3 year old prep for the Derby at 1 3/16 miles (the longest prep), he was dominant and beat Wrote who had won the B.C. Juvenile Turf and Lucky Chappy.


10. El Padrino - came up 4th in the Florida Derby with a wide trip with Take Charge Indy and Union Rags ahead of him. Previously, he had beaten Take Charge Indy by a length.


11. Optimizer - was beaten badly in his last prep in the Arkansas Derby by Bodemeister. In his previous start, he appeared to close strongly for 2nd against horses that were collapsing up front. He also lost by many lengths this year to El Padrino. As a 2 year old, though, he was beaten 2 lengths by Gemologist and about the same by Dullahan. Early in his career, he had beaten Dullahan on the turf.


12. Went the Day Well - has not beaten any major contenders but has followed a similar pattern of preparation as last year's winner Animal Kingdom. The Kentucky Derby is such an elusive prize that I can't see the same connections being able to strike twice in a row. It would say this game is easy and history proves that it is not. 


I will be looking for value from these top 11 and hope that post position draw, pre-race appearance and odds will help sort out the best plays.


12. All Others - the remaining horses are non-contenders according to their past non-competitiveness against the top horses or others who have been trounced by top horses. For example, Daddy Nose Best beat Lucky Chappy who lost by many to Daddy Long Legs. He subsequently lost to Isn't He Clever who was well-beaten by Bodemeister. Rousing Sermon has never been competitive for a win against the top ones that he has faced in California. Sabrecat is in the same category.


Look for an updated performance analysis that will be posted after the Entry and Post Position Draw on Wednesday. Saturday's Kentucky Derby should most exciting and entertaining as a great crop of 3 year olds try to sort out who is the best on the track.


Full Card Race Selections available at:


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