Tracking Return on Investment (ROI) Saratoga and Del Mar 2012

I don't always have time to complete full analysis of results but I regularly analyse a period of races at different tracks to understand effectiveness of Horsewin Race Selections and the various factors that are ranked in the reports. Saratoga and Del Mar are very popular race meets that take place from mid-July to early September and both are noted for the high quality of racing.

In 2011, Horsewin Selections and results were tracked at Saratoga. At the end of the meet a 30 %win  had been achieved with a positive R.O.I. based on a win bet on all regular races (non-Steeplechase).

Below are the results to date (August 30, 2012) for both the top and 2nd ranked selections. Proudly, another positive R.O.I has been achieved at Saratoga for 2012 based on top selections with a 30% win at average odds of 2.2 - 1.

Del Mar is a different story where the win % for the top selection has hovered around 25% and produced a negative R.O.I. However, the second pick has achieved a  normal 20% win but unexpectedly produced a positive R.O.I based on generous average odds of 4-1.

More in depth analysis has been completed and shared with subscribers. While some changes and improvement will be made for Saratoga 2013, more significant adjustments will be adopted for Del Mar 2013. The key finding is that speed was a much more significant factor in 2012 as one might guess for a track (both dirt and turf) that produced numerous new track record times.

The Win Ranking is a strong indicator for both Saratoga and Del Mar as approximately 70% of races at both tracks are won by horses ranked in top 4 with average winning odds of 3.6. This factor ranks higher than any other factor that is tracked. Of note also are a few races at Saratoga where profit for the meet was almost guaranteed. For example, on Wednesday, August 29 in Race 7 the top ranked horse and second ranked horse ran in order for a $44 win price and $454 cold exacta. On another outstanding day, a string of 6 consecutive top ranked winners started with a $40 payoff and then the first five winners in the Pick 6 sequence for at least a consolation Pick 6 payoff.

TRACKING ROI FOR SARATOGA AND DELMAR 2012

Horsewin Report TOP Selections Returned a Positive ROI at SARATOGA 2011 - Trying for a Repeat in 2012
Horsewin Report Often Picks Against Favorites to Focus on Value Plays

Track	Total Races	Total Wins	Win %	Total Return	Net Return $2 Win
SAR TOP Picks	365	109	30%	$741	+11.00
SAR 2nd Picks	365	57	16%	$421.80	-$308.20
DMR TOP Picks	278	67	24%	$402.00	-$154.00
DMR 2nd Picks	278	56	20%	$560.00	+$4.00

 

Who's on First ? or (Who has beaten Who going into Kentucky Oaks 2012?)

In the Kentucky Derby, 9 of the 20 entrants faced off in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile last fall. In the Kentucky Oaks on Friday, only one filly , Grace Hall ran in this race. She finished 2nd to the 2 yo Champion Filly, My Miss Aurelia. Hard Not To Like ran in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile Filly Turf and was beaten 3 lengths. Grace Hall is one of the Morning Line choices while Hard Not To Like is 20-1, even though she is coming off a 2nd in the G1 Ashland Stakes at Keeneland in her only 3 yo start. If her odds are higher at post, she is definitely worth a play, even with the knocks of trying dirt for the 1st time and only 2nd start of the year against her.


The rest of the field presents an interesting puzzle as there are a number of very talented fillies coming off very good races. Who has beaten who creates a mixed picture for the Oaks.


Grace Hall - has beaten Yara but lost by a neck to Yara in her first start of 2012. Her last victory was in the GP Oaks where won well at the Oaks distance of 9 furlongs.. She also beat And Why Not as a 2 yo in the Spinaway at 7 furlongs at Saratoga.


Broadway Alibi - lost her first career race but is undefeated since. She won the Forward Gal at 7 Furlongs by 17 lengths with Sacristy 3rd. In her last race she won the Gamely at a mile as a prep for this. She has the pedigree to stretch out.


Eden's Moon - has not beaten any major contenders but acquitted herself well in her limited experience. She is trained by Baffert and is a big strong filly who is still developing


Hard Not To Like - is very accomplished on the turf and is trying a dirt surface for the 1st time. She ran 2nd on the poly at KEE to Karlovy Vary in the G1 Ashland in her only 3 yo start. She ran well in the BC Juvenile Filly Turf beaten only 3 lengths.


Sacristy - was 3rd by 19 lengths to Broadway Alibi but is stretching out with a nice distance pedigree.


On Fire Baby - beat Amie's Dini and Colonial Empress in the Honeybee at Oaklawn last out.Last year she beat And Why Not in the Pocahantis at a mile at Churchill. 


Believe You Can - defeated Summer Applause twice at Fairgrounds but also lost by 7 to Summer Applause 2nd back.Last year, she was beaten by On Fire Baby, And Why Not at Churchill at a mile.


Summer Applause - has been 2nd twice to Believe You Can but turned the table and beat that one in her 2nd last race.


Karlovy Vary - is a much improved filly that won her last race at KEE, the G1 Ashland Stakes defeating Hard Not To Like by 3/4 length.At Churchill last fall, she was beaten 12 lengths by OnFireBaby.


Yara - Upset Grace Hall when Grace was making her first start this year. She then lost to Grace Hall at 9 furlongs in the GP Oaks. She also lost to Broadway Alibi and Sacristy on a sloppy track.


Amie's Dini - beat Jemima's Pearl 1/2 length in the Fantasy. She was 2nd by 2 lengths to OnFireBaby in the Honeybee and beat Colonial Empress by many in that same race.


Jemima's Pearl - won her first North American start on dirt at Santa Anita and then ran 1/2 length behing Amie's Dini in a G2 Stakes at Oaklawn. She was transferred to trainer Baffert before that race.


Colonial Empress - no comments to offer but I would be very surprised to see this maiden in the top 5 finishers in the Oaks.


This race sets up very nicely for Grace Hall. She has a strong late pace profile that means that she can conserve herself early and come on in the stretch. She has already won at the 9 furlong Oaks distance on dirt. Many of the other contenders are speed oriented and may fade in the stretch. I suspect that Broadway Alibi will be on the lead in the stretch with Grace Hall running her down. Hard Not To Like should be running on end and is a strong long shot play at 20-1 morning line odds.




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