Results and Probabilities
Horsewin Weekend Results for Jan 15-16 2012
Horsewin Weekend Results for Jan 15-16 2012
Below is a summary that provides a good overview of results from WIN Selections in the Horsewin Report.
Two days of results is a small sample and some anomalies can be identified. Win % for the TOP Selection is usually in the 30 % range. SA and TAM were very formful on these 2 days as reflected in the ODDS of 1.6 and 2.7. Also the TOTAL Win % for SA is aided by the smaller fields, as often the TOP 4 Selections comprise more than half of the field.
Wins - Probabilities - Profit
Using the Value Formula from the www.horsewin.ca website, we can test these results for Profit and project what WIN % and ODDS are required to show gains from betting.
AQU : WIN% - (38.9) x ODDS (1.5)- (100 - WIN % (38.9)) = 1.14% Profit - Just slightly more than Break Even or a poor proposition for gambling.
GP : WIN % (27.3) x ODDS (1.9) - (100 - WIN % (27.3)) = -20.83% Loss
SA : WIN % (44.4) x ODDS (1.6) - (100 - WIN %) = 15.44% Profit
TAM : WIN% (55) x ODDS (2.7) - (100 - WIN %) = 103.5% Profit
The examples above show the importance of WIN % and ODDS. Even when you cashing more tickets, if the odds are not great enough then a loss can be expected.
A 30 Win % is usually expected. At this rate, ODDS greater than 5/2 or 2.5 to 1 are required to show a reasonable profit :
30% x 2.5 - 70 = 5%
30% x 3 - 70 = 20%
A 1/2 change in ODDS makes a significant difference in profit in the long run.
With this in mind, it is important to try to find horses with a profile that can win the race at odds that will pay for the losing propositions. These horses are usually referred to as value horses. Horsewin has a source for value plays which are described in another Blog Post - MAIDEN RACES - A Source of Value.
Multi- Race Bets and Probabilities
Some attractive pay-offs are available from multiple race bets such as Doubles, Pick 3's, 4's, 5's and 6's.
Here is the probability picture for a Pick 3 if you have a 50% win rate (e.g. Top 2 Selections):
1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 = 1/8 or 12.5%
Even at 66% win rate the probability looks like this:
2/3 x 2/3 x 2/3 = 8/27 or 29.6%
Of course probabilities decrease as you add additional races.
Keep these probabilities in mind when playing multiple race bets as a significant bankroll is required (between wins) to sustain this type of action.
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or
call/whatsapp:+2349057261346