Tracking Return on Investment (ROI) Saratoga and Del Mar 2012

I don't always have time to complete full analysis of results but I regularly analyse a period of races at different tracks to understand effectiveness of Horsewin Race Selections and the various factors that are ranked in the reports. Saratoga and Del Mar are very popular race meets that take place from mid-July to early September and both are noted for the high quality of racing.

In 2011, Horsewin Selections and results were tracked at Saratoga. At the end of the meet a 30 %win  had been achieved with a positive R.O.I. based on a win bet on all regular races (non-Steeplechase).

Below are the results to date (August 30, 2012) for both the top and 2nd ranked selections. Proudly, another positive R.O.I has been achieved at Saratoga for 2012 based on top selections with a 30% win at average odds of 2.2 - 1.

Del Mar is a different story where the win % for the top selection has hovered around 25% and produced a negative R.O.I. However, the second pick has achieved a  normal 20% win but unexpectedly produced a positive R.O.I based on generous average odds of 4-1.

More in depth analysis has been completed and shared with subscribers. While some changes and improvement will be made for Saratoga 2013, more significant adjustments will be adopted for Del Mar 2013. The key finding is that speed was a much more significant factor in 2012 as one might guess for a track (both dirt and turf) that produced numerous new track record times.

The Win Ranking is a strong indicator for both Saratoga and Del Mar as approximately 70% of races at both tracks are won by horses ranked in top 4 with average winning odds of 3.6. This factor ranks higher than any other factor that is tracked. Of note also are a few races at Saratoga where profit for the meet was almost guaranteed. For example, on Wednesday, August 29 in Race 7 the top ranked horse and second ranked horse ran in order for a $44 win price and $454 cold exacta. On another outstanding day, a string of 6 consecutive top ranked winners started with a $40 payoff and then the first five winners in the Pick 6 sequence for at least a consolation Pick 6 payoff.

TRACKING ROI FOR SARATOGA AND DELMAR 2012

Horsewin Report TOP Selections Returned a Positive ROI at SARATOGA 2011 - Trying for a Repeat in 2012
Horsewin Report Often Picks Against Favorites to Focus on Value Plays

Track	Total Races	Total Wins	Win %	Total Return	Net Return $2 Win
SAR TOP Picks	365	109	30%	$741	+11.00
SAR 2nd Picks	365	57	16%	$421.80	-$308.20
DMR TOP Picks	278	67	24%	$402.00	-$154.00
DMR 2nd Picks	278	56	20%	$560.00	+$4.00

 

Who's on First ? or (Who has beaten Who going into Kentucky Oaks 2012?)

In the Kentucky Derby, 9 of the 20 entrants faced off in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile last fall. In the Kentucky Oaks on Friday, only one filly , Grace Hall ran in this race. She finished 2nd to the 2 yo Champion Filly, My Miss Aurelia. Hard Not To Like ran in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile Filly Turf and was beaten 3 lengths. Grace Hall is one of the Morning Line choices while Hard Not To Like is 20-1, even though she is coming off a 2nd in the G1 Ashland Stakes at Keeneland in her only 3 yo start. If her odds are higher at post, she is definitely worth a play, even with the knocks of trying dirt for the 1st time and only 2nd start of the year against her.


The rest of the field presents an interesting puzzle as there are a number of very talented fillies coming off very good races. Who has beaten who creates a mixed picture for the Oaks.


Grace Hall - has beaten Yara but lost by a neck to Yara in her first start of 2012. Her last victory was in the GP Oaks where won well at the Oaks distance of 9 furlongs.. She also beat And Why Not as a 2 yo in the Spinaway at 7 furlongs at Saratoga.


Broadway Alibi - lost her first career race but is undefeated since. She won the Forward Gal at 7 Furlongs by 17 lengths with Sacristy 3rd. In her last race she won the Gamely at a mile as a prep for this. She has the pedigree to stretch out.


Eden's Moon - has not beaten any major contenders but acquitted herself well in her limited experience. She is trained by Baffert and is a big strong filly who is still developing


Hard Not To Like - is very accomplished on the turf and is trying a dirt surface for the 1st time. She ran 2nd on the poly at KEE to Karlovy Vary in the G1 Ashland in her only 3 yo start. She ran well in the BC Juvenile Filly Turf beaten only 3 lengths.


Sacristy - was 3rd by 19 lengths to Broadway Alibi but is stretching out with a nice distance pedigree.


On Fire Baby - beat Amie's Dini and Colonial Empress in the Honeybee at Oaklawn last out.Last year she beat And Why Not in the Pocahantis at a mile at Churchill. 


Believe You Can - defeated Summer Applause twice at Fairgrounds but also lost by 7 to Summer Applause 2nd back.Last year, she was beaten by On Fire Baby, And Why Not at Churchill at a mile.


Summer Applause - has been 2nd twice to Believe You Can but turned the table and beat that one in her 2nd last race.


Karlovy Vary - is a much improved filly that won her last race at KEE, the G1 Ashland Stakes defeating Hard Not To Like by 3/4 length.At Churchill last fall, she was beaten 12 lengths by OnFireBaby.


Yara - Upset Grace Hall when Grace was making her first start this year. She then lost to Grace Hall at 9 furlongs in the GP Oaks. She also lost to Broadway Alibi and Sacristy on a sloppy track.


Amie's Dini - beat Jemima's Pearl 1/2 length in the Fantasy. She was 2nd by 2 lengths to OnFireBaby in the Honeybee and beat Colonial Empress by many in that same race.


Jemima's Pearl - won her first North American start on dirt at Santa Anita and then ran 1/2 length behing Amie's Dini in a G2 Stakes at Oaklawn. She was transferred to trainer Baffert before that race.


Colonial Empress - no comments to offer but I would be very surprised to see this maiden in the top 5 finishers in the Oaks.


This race sets up very nicely for Grace Hall. She has a strong late pace profile that means that she can conserve herself early and come on in the stretch. She has already won at the 9 furlong Oaks distance on dirt. Many of the other contenders are speed oriented and may fade in the stretch. I suspect that Broadway Alibi will be on the lead in the stretch with Grace Hall running her down. Hard Not To Like should be running on end and is a strong long shot play at 20-1 morning line odds.




Full Card Race Selections are available at:


www.horsewin.ca

Who's on First ? or (Who has beaten Who going into Kentucky Derby 2012?)

It may helpful in a competitive field with many contenders to do a bit of analysis of who has raced against each other in the past and who has won. I think some clear pretenders emerge from this review and if any of them win on Saturday, I will call them miracle horses. A key race is the B.C Juvenile in which 9 entrants ran including the top 2 finishers Hansen and Union Rags.


1. Hansen - many contenders have ducked running against the 2 year old champ who beat Union Rags by a head in the B.C. Juvenile. Behind Union Rags were Creative Cause, Dullahan, Take Charge Indy, Alpha, Daddy Long Legs, Prospective and Optimizer.


However, more recently, Hansen beat no other major contenders in the Gotham and lost his final prep to a closing Dullahan.


2. Union Rags - lost to Hansen by a neck in the B.C. Juvenile but has beaten Alpha and El Padrino. He ran 2nd to Take Charge Indy in the Florida Derby after a troubled trip - a horse he had beaten in the B.C. Juvenile.


3. Creative Cause - has beaten Bodemeister by 3/4 of a length and lost by a nose to I'll Have Another, one he had beaten as a 2 year old at 7 furlongs. He ran 3rd by 1 to Hansen and Union Rags in the B.C. Juvenile.


4. I'll Have Another - beat Creative Cause by a nose and ran 2nd to him as a 2 year old at 7 furlongs. He also lost to Trinniberg at 7 furlongs in the slop in his first ship east as a juvenile.


5. Bodemeister - ran huge in his final prep in the Arkansas Derby beating Sabercat and Optimizer by many lengths. As noted above, he lost to Creative Cause in his previous start.


6. Gemologist - is undefeated and won the Wood by a neck over Alpha who was 2nd to Union Rags earlier.


7. Take Charge Indy - won the Florida Derby and beat Union Rags and El Padrino in this race. He  previously lost by 2 lengths to El Padrino and was beaten 6 lengths by Hansen and Union Rags in the B.C. Juvenile.


8. Dullahan - won the Blue Grass Stakes with a strong close to beat Hansen. In the B.C. Juvenile, he was 4th beaten by Hansen, Union Rags and Creative Cause. Earlier he had beaten Optimizer but also lost to this horse and Sabrecat in maiden races.


9. Daddy Long Legs - ran poorly in the B.C. Juvenile as a Euro shipper. In his only 3 year old prep for the Derby at 1 3/16 miles (the longest prep), he was dominant and beat Wrote who had won the B.C. Juvenile Turf and Lucky Chappy.


10. El Padrino - came up 4th in the Florida Derby with a wide trip with Take Charge Indy and Union Rags ahead of him. Previously, he had beaten Take Charge Indy by a length.


11. Optimizer - was beaten badly in his last prep in the Arkansas Derby by Bodemeister. In his previous start, he appeared to close strongly for 2nd against horses that were collapsing up front. He also lost by many lengths this year to El Padrino. As a 2 year old, though, he was beaten 2 lengths by Gemologist and about the same by Dullahan. Early in his career, he had beaten Dullahan on the turf.


12. Went the Day Well - has not beaten any major contenders but has followed a similar pattern of preparation as last year's winner Animal Kingdom. The Kentucky Derby is such an elusive prize that I can't see the same connections being able to strike twice in a row. It would say this game is easy and history proves that it is not. 


I will be looking for value from these top 11 and hope that post position draw, pre-race appearance and odds will help sort out the best plays.


12. All Others - the remaining horses are non-contenders according to their past non-competitiveness against the top horses or others who have been trounced by top horses. For example, Daddy Nose Best beat Lucky Chappy who lost by many to Daddy Long Legs. He subsequently lost to Isn't He Clever who was well-beaten by Bodemeister. Rousing Sermon has never been competitive for a win against the top ones that he has faced in California. Sabrecat is in the same category.


Look for an updated performance analysis that will be posted after the Entry and Post Position Draw on Wednesday. Saturday's Kentucky Derby should most exciting and entertaining as a great crop of 3 year olds try to sort out who is the best on the track.


Full Card Race Selections available at:


www.horsewin.ca

Horsewin Results for Hastings Park to April 22, 2012

Below are the results to date for Horsewin Selections at Hastings Park. The results are based on a small sample and over time the win % for top selections will increase over 2nd picks. Overall, a 56% win rate from the top 2 selections is good but the odds are too low to turn a flat bet profit.


Based on these results, the top 2 Selections are "A" horses for Keys in multi- race plays such as Pick 3's and 4's.

Horsewin Results Sample to January 29 2012

Below is the most recent update and analysis of results for published selections from Horsewin Reports. While the win % are moving closer to the expected norm of 30%, the payoffs are lagging. A flat bet profit is not possible with these results. There are some good returns available on selected races. I estimate the true value on the selections as 3-1 for a top pick (2-1 in a small field), 5-1 for a 2nd pick, 8-1 for 3rd pick and 10-1 for 4th pick. In small fields which are fairly frequent at AQU and SA, rarely are these odds available; however, when there is a larger field, the opportunities to play at value odds are much more frequent.


It is interesting to note that the total win % for the top 4 selections is quite high. Multiple race bets may present the best chance for profits, notwithstanding the higher risk.

				HORSEWIN WEEKEND RESULTS FOR Dec 26 2011- Jan 29 2012
								WIN SUMMARY
Track	Races		TOP	Col 1	ODDS		2ND	2ND	ODDS		3RD	3RD	ODDS		4TH	4TH	ODDS		TOTAL
			Wins	Win %			Wins	Win %			Wins	Win %			Wins	Win %			Win %
AQU	226		78	34.5%	1.6		46	20.4%	3.2		29	12.8%	3.2		25	11.1%	7.3		78.8%
GP	275		68	24.7%	2.2		47	17.1%	3.8		41	14.9%	5.8		25	9.1%	7.1		65.8%
SA	198		55	27.8%	1.9		31	15.7%	2.7		28	14.1%	4.7		17	8.6%	5.9		66.2%
TAM	123		39	31.7%	1.9		27	22.0%	3		13	10.6%	5		8	6.5%	9		70.7%
					PLACE SUMMARY
			TOP		ODDS		2ND		ODDS
			PL				PL
AQU	226		44	19.5%	2.3		38	16.8%	4.2
GP	275		48	17.5%	2.8		38	13.8%	5.3
SA	198		38	19.2%	2.9		38	19.2%	4.3
TAM	123		18	14.6%	2.6		22	17.9%	3.3

Looking Back at the National Handicapping Challenge 2012

Looking for Longshots

Generally, my attempts at handicapping tournament play have been failures. My goal for 2012 is to become a competent tournament player and then perhaps start to pursue the NHC Tour.

My approach to handicapping is to try to find the most probable horses at a price. In some cases, the favourites are confirmed as most probable horses and perform as expected. There are upsets when less probable horses win and the post mortem is usually either expected performances didn't materialize or the winner improved to a new level that wasn't necessarily predictable based on past performances.

This is an area of handicapping that is very challenging to master. I have read or heard numerous predictions of bounces, or better performances  based on previous trips or form cycle. While sometimes valid, these "angles" are hard to predict and measure effectively to determine probability. For example, it has been suggested that 3 declining speed figures is a clear negative and these horses should not be played. My experience says that these horses win their share and other factors are more important screening tools. I will be looking for a more consistent way to identify horses that can be played for tournament wins

Profiling

In the past year, an extensive analysis was completed of factors that could help profile horses that win races. I divided these profiles into 2 categories: Horses with strong profiles that could be called key horses and another set of factors that identified horses with a chance of winning at higher odds. These 2 profiles are highlighted in Red and Yellow respectively on the Horsewin Reports.

Key Horses (Red)

In the results below for the NHC Mandatory Races, only 4 Key horses won or about 27% with a total return of $57.50, or average win/place price of $14.36. In addition 2 placed for an average place only payoff of $4.50.  In total 20 horses were identified as key or about 1.33 per race and some of these would have been value plays at odds greater than 3-1.

Over the Friday and Saturday Contest Period, Horsewin Handicapped approximately 82 (non-mandatory) races run at 5 tracks.  This created 164 Win/Place and Place Results that could count in contest scores. Key Horses highlighted in Red produced 69 wins (1st or 2nd finish) or 84% in the money. The rate of success suggests that Key Horses are good place to start in the search for winners. The key issue remains of how to get winners at adequate prices to be tournament competitive. At an average 1.3 per race, the right Key Horse has to be played which adds additional challenge.

The top 10 Win/Place payoffs in this 95 Winner Sample totaled $198.70 or an average of $19.87. This type of return is reasonable for competitive tournament play unless a handicapper can win a high % of plays.  In the NHC Championship, a total of $238 was achieved by the winner from 29 races or an average return of $8.20 per race. I suspect that the lower total is the result of capped (maximum payoff winners) that pushed most of the leaders to the top. It is suspected that others had to play higher odds horses which resulted in fewer winners. But again, it is difficult to nail the best horse at the best price, even when choosing from 2 or 3 contenders. A number of years ago I played an online tournament where where a top pick and back-up horse had to be selected. My back-up horses won enough return to win the tournament while my top picks performed below average.

Key Longshots (Yellow)

In total, 15 Longshots ( in 11 of 15 mandatory races) were identified in the same sample or an average of about 1.5 per race. Of these, there were 3 winners and 4 places. On average a highlighted longshot placed (1st or 2nd) in 6 of the 15 races. The average win place payoff (uncapped) was $37.14. The average place only payoff was $5.20. This appears to be another source of possible plays for tournaments.

In another group of 82 non-mandatory races from 5 different tracks handicapped by Horsewin, Key Longshots placed (1st or 2nd) 24 times or 29%.  The Key Longshots were not as effective in the larger sample in comparison to mandatory race sample.

Mandatory Races and Results Analysis

Track	Race	Horsewin Rank	Win Result(W/P payoff)	Place Result(P payoff)
Friday, January 27, 2012
GP	3	2,3,9,5,4,7	7 ($84)	9 ($5)
TAM	6	1,11,7,3,4	7 ($17.40)	3 ($5.60)
GP	9	3,7,11,4,8	3 ($10.60)	10 ($21.20)
SA	3	3,5,7,1,8	5 ($9)	3 ($5)
FG	9	1,2,7,9,	2 ($19.60)	7 ($4)
OP	9	2,7,3,9,4	9 ($14.60)	1 ($11.80)
SA	7	10,5,6,8,2	2 ($12.80)	9 ($8.40)
Saturday January 28 2012
AQU	4	6,8,1,7	1 ($14.90)	7 ($6.80)
AQU	6	4,2,8,5,3	4 ($9.90 )	8 ($5.00)
TAM	8	10,6,8,2,7,9	8 ($10.80	6 ($4.80)
GP	9	1,10,5,3	5 ($8.40)	1 ($4.20)
SA	6	3,,8,9,1	5 ($18.80)	8 ($8.00)
GP	11	11,10,9,6	2 ($20.60)	11($5.00)
SA	8	2,4,9,7,3	3 ($13.20 )	4($5.80 )
Horsewin Key Picks(Red)	Horsewin Key Longshots(Yellow)

Horsewin Presentation on Report Details

Below is a presentation on aspects of Horsewin Reports.

Horsewin Weekend Results

Results and Probabilities


Horsewin Weekend Results for Jan 15-16 2012

Below is a summary that provides a good overview of results from WIN Selections in the Horsewin Report.
Two days of results is a small sample and some anomalies can be identified. Win % for the TOP Selection is usually in the 30 % range. SA and TAM were very formful on these 2 days as reflected in the ODDS of 1.6 and 2.7. Also the TOTAL Win % for SA is aided by the smaller fields, as  often the TOP 4 Selections comprise more than half of the field.

Wins - Probabilities - Profit


Using the Value Formula from the www.horsewin.ca website, we can test these results for Profit and project what WIN % and ODDS are required to show gains from betting.


AQU :  WIN% - (38.9) x ODDS  (1.5)- (100 - WIN % (38.9)) = 1.14% Profit - Just slightly more than Break Even or a poor proposition for gambling.


GP : WIN % (27.3) x ODDS (1.9) - (100 - WIN % (27.3))  =  -20.83% Loss


SA : WIN % (44.4) x ODDS (1.6) - (100 - WIN %) =  15.44% Profit


TAM : WIN% (55) x ODDS (2.7) - (100 - WIN %) = 103.5% Profit


The examples above show the importance of WIN % and ODDS. Even when you cashing more tickets, if the odds are not great enough then a loss can be expected.


A 30 Win % is usually expected. At this rate, ODDS greater than 5/2 or 2.5 to 1 are required to show a reasonable profit :


30% x 2.5 - 70 = 5%
30% x 3 - 70 = 20%


A 1/2 change in ODDS makes a significant difference in profit in the long run.


With this in mind, it is important to try to find horses with a profile that can win the race at odds that will pay for the losing propositions. These horses are usually referred to as value horses. Horsewin has a source for value plays which are described in another Blog Post - MAIDEN RACES - A Source of Value.


Multi- Race Bets and Probabilities


Some attractive pay-offs are available from multiple race bets such as Doubles, Pick 3's, 4's, 5's and 6's.


Here is the probability picture for a Pick 3 if you have a 50% win rate (e.g. Top 2 Selections):


1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 = 1/8 or 12.5%


Even at 66% win rate the probability looks like this:


2/3 x 2/3 x 2/3 = 8/27 or 29.6%


Of course probabilities decrease as you add additional races.


Keep these probabilities in mind when playing multiple race bets as a significant bankroll is required (between wins) to sustain this type of action.

MAIDEN RACES - A Key Source of Value

MAIDEN RACES - A Key Source of Value

HORSEWIN provides analysis that compares the relative strength of past performances with the projected potential of First Time Starters (FTS). Often,  FTS's are forecast to win and often the odds offered on this type of runner are generous. It is agreed that gambling on this assessment is a higher risk endeavor, but the results achieved with this approach have been strong. Some Horseplayers advocate playing these types of runners when "smart money" shows up. Take the opposite approach and play these horses at higher odds (5-1 or greater).  As the information to make this assessment of FTS's, is not readily available to other Horse Players, this is an area where HORSEWIN subscribers have an edge. Below is an example of this edge in action.

Gulfstream Park - Race 10 01/16/2012


In this situation, a Christophe Clement Firster was established at 6-1 in the ML and actually went off at higher odds. The Horsewin assessment was that this Firster could beat this field of more experienced runners and he did at 9-1 odds. The 2nd Ranked #1 finished 3rd and the other Firster, #11, which was ranked 3rd , finished fourth. The 2nd Place finisher , #6 , was not as well ranked on past  performance but some expected improvement based on the 4-1 ML and the Mott trainer connection . In the Horsewin  Handicapping Guide , it is expressed that Favourites are logical inclusions when playing Ex, Tri's etc as the In The Money %'s are strong. However, consistent with the value approach of looking for horses to bet at a good price (higher odds), your keys in these types of bets should be overlays such as the #5 in this race.

Pedigree is one of the important parts of the analysis of First Time Starters. The #5 in this race is by the Sire English Crossing whose offspring are showing turf promise with the results of his first crop.

#	Horse	Jockey	Weight	Win	Place	Show
5	Easy Crossing	Castellano Javier	122	21.80	10.80	7.20
6	Balance the Budget	Lezcano Jose	122		7.20	5.00
1	Captain Fantastic	Rose Jeremy	122			4.20

Wager Type	Payoff		Winning Numbers	Pool
$1 Pick 3	$1,008.60		1-3-5 (3 Correct)	$49,150
$1 Pick 4	$7,238.40		1/12-1-3-5 (4 Correct)	$178,984
Pick 5	$105.60		8-1/12-1-3-5 (4 Correct)	N/A
Pick 5	$9,695.90		8-1/12-1-3-5 (5 Correct)	$76,057
6J	$5,994.21		12-8-1/12-1-3-5 (6 Correct) (Carryover: $39960)	$24,976
$2 Daily Double	$165.00		3-5	$97,156
$2 Exacta	$112.20		5-6	$243,266
$1 Superfecta	$1,737.50		5-6-1-11	$99,524
$1 Trifecta	$234.20		5-6-1	$153,455
$1 Z5	$10,848.00		5-6-1-11-7	$7,098

Owner:	Preston Stables LLC
Trainer:	Christophe Clement
Breeder:	Mrs. Arturo Peralta Ramos (KY)

Also Ran:	11 - Quiet Rebel, 7 - Fortunate Bill, 3 - Silver Wings, 8 - Situational Ethics,
	2 - Dupes, 4 - In the Midnight, 12 - I Cat, 10 - Fly Ride, 9 - Yes He's Trouble

Scratched:

The Deaconator, Power Emblem, I Captivate Myself

For additional, information on the Horsewin Handicap approach and a Free Trial visit www.Horsewin.ca

Results with HORSEWIN Reports

Unfortunately, after handicapping and analysis of results, there is very little  time left for sharing some of the Horsewin Report Highlights and how the information works in practice.


Here is a look back at some examples from last Saturday through Friday. (01/07 to 01/13 / 2012). The handicapping approach will be identified in each example and as you will see, the information provided in Horsewin Reports can be used in a number of ways to identify actual plays.


The approach that is always recommended is to avoid overbet favorites. Yes, the betting public's choices win more than 33% of the time on average but the payoffs are too low to make a profit. Do not be concerned or discouraged when you get beat by a favorite. Races with overbet favourites can be passed unless you have an exotic or multiple race bet or a "beat the favourite" pick that offers good value. If you play horses with good profiles at higher odds, you should win frequently enough to gain profits.


Also, keep in mind the big picture of handicapping. In my view, about 1/3 of winners can be identified with basic handicapping. Favorites will usually be found in this group. Another 1/3 of winners can be identified through less obvious methods. In this group value plays are likely to be found. The remaining 1/3 of races are difficult if not impossible to pick. Some of the winners in this group will keep you going back to your form to find out how you could pick one of these and you may still be left scratching your head.


The fact that there is a predictability in horse racing makes it the greatest gambling game. If you study all forms of gaming, most present random outcomes. Horse racing is not random.


Race 1 Aqueduct  01/07/2012


Here is an example where the win rankings produce 2 logical favorites in the top 3 but also include a 20-1 Morning Line Horse. When the longshot came 3rd, a nice Trifecta resulted when played with the other top 3 picks. You will see examples of a lone CL (Class) designation such as #7 highlighted in another result . In this case, the 7 was a scratch.

#	Horse	Jockey	Win	Place	Show
6	Poppa's Pick	Cohen D	$6.00	$3.60	$3.30
3	Drink With Pride	Alvarado J	-	$2.80	$2.40
1	Leap Day	Rodriguez J I	-	-	$4.90
9	The Zipster	Luzzi M J	-	-	-

Scratched: Giopi (IRE) (7)

Winning Trainer: David Jacobson – Owner: Drawing Away Stable and Jacobson, David

$1 Trifecta Box Paid $64.50

$2 Exacta (6-3) Paid $18.20

$2 Trifecta (6-3-1) Paid $129.00

$0.10 Superfecta (6-3-1-9) Paid $23.22

Race 2 Gulfstream Park 01/07/2012

In this Race, #6, the top ranked horse, displayed a number of strong attributes in the analysis presented. The strongest indicator beyond the top rating was the H+ H+ Early-Late Profile. These horses appear infrequently and win at over a 50% rate. One example at Saratoga last August paid  higher than 20-1 odds. Surprisingly, #6 in this race paid a generous $8 and was followed home by the 2nd pick, at 15-1 ML, for $111 Ex. 

#	Horse	Jockey	Win	Place	Show
6	Star Distinction	Rivera II J A	$8.40	$4.60	$3.40
8	Starship Romeo	Jara F	-	$14.20	$8.80
4	Side Party Ralph	Leyva J C	-	-	$4.00
3	Radicchio	Maragh R	-	-	-

Scratched: Hertzel (1)

Winning Trainer: Daniel Pita – Owner: Tabraue, Brenda and Blue Top Holding Stables

$2 Exacta (6-8) Paid $111.20

$0.50 Trifecta (6-8-4) Paid $174.35

$0.10 Superfecta (6-8-4-3) Paid $115.69

Aqueduct Race 3 01/11/2012 

This is an example of a Top Win Selection overlay with #7 picked 1st over a very strong entry. I usually look at these situations as a good betting opportunity but cover the favorite winning with an Ex. Box and key on a win bet on the top pick overlay. Of course other betting opportunities are also available with Tri's , Doubles and multiple race plays.

3 # Horse Jockey Win Place Show 7 Time Marches On Garcia A $14.00 $3.90 $3.00 1 Deflate the Bubble / Zero Yield Cohen D / Dominguez R A - $2.20 $2.10 1 Deflate the Bubble / Zero Yield Cohen D / Dominguez R A - $2.20 $2.10 5 Dear Elizabeth Velasquez C H - - - 6 Westside Singer Luzzi M J - - - Winning Trainer: Chris J Englehart – Owner: My Purple Haze Stables and Wachtel Stable $2 Pick 3 (3/5/7) Paid $134.00 (3OF3) $2 Double (5/7) Paid $31.40 $2 Exacta (7-1) Paid $23.80 $2 Trifecta (7-1-5) Paid $32.60 $2 Trifecta (7-1-6) Paid $83.00 Gulfstream Park Race 7 01/11/2012 In this Race, the overlay #10 at 6-1 ML was my top pick with also a XXX rating. The credentials on #7 were also strong and it is noteworthy that in the Scoring, there is only a 12 point difference. A 50 point gap from 1st to 2nd is considered significant. The #7 took the majority of the money as favorite and didn't disappoint but the #10 came second and an Exacta Box as described earlier saved the day. It is also noteworthy that the Tri and Super were almost in order. Also, #4  the 3rd place finisher displayed the lone H+ which is another angle for play. In this case, all of the significant indicators aligned and a top 3 box was good for the Exacta and Tri. Race 7 # Horse Jockey Win Place Show 7 Gangsterontherun Corrales F R $4.60 $3.20 $2.40 10 Bossman Blue's Maragh R - $4.40 $3.40 4 Candi's Halo Jurado L - - $3.80 9 Subtitles Rocco, Jr. J - - - Scratched: Under Contract (3) Winning Trainer: Wesley A Ward – Owner: Marco Thoroughbred Corp. and Ward, Wesley $2 Double (11/7) Paid $130.80 $2 Pick 3 (4/11/7) Paid $380.40 (3OF3) $2 Exacta (7-10) Paid $16.80 $0.50 Trifecta (7-10-4) Paid $16.15 $0.10 Superfecta (7-10-4-9) Paid $16.54 Gulfstream Park Race 9 01/11/2012 Maiden Races on Dirt and Turf are also a source of good results as Horsewin applies a unique analysis to these races that includes an assessment of FTS (First Time Starters). At one time, these races may have been a pass for play as too risky with the unknowns of unraced horses. Now with the knowledge that has been developed, these races are excellent source of overlays. In the example below, after scratches of 13-16 horses, the New Win Rankings were 5-10-9-2-3 with the #4 as a key horse highlight. In a future Blog Post, we will be discussing the Key Horse Highlights but the bottom line is that any top ranked horse is a play, whether highlighted or not. The tote board lit up with a nice 6-1 top ranked win in the #5 and the 4th ranked FTS #2 came in 2nd at very long odds for a $153 Ex and the #4 3rd for a $259 $.50 Tri. Race 9 # Horse Jockey Win Place Show 5 Commitment Letter Alvarez J L $14.40 $7.80 $4.60 2 American Doe Bravo J - $11.20 $6.80 4 Brian Lezcano J - - $3.60 11 Mr E Philip Solis A O - - - 10 Jardun Prado E S - - - Scratched: Blue Creek (13), Winston C (14), Mambo Boom (15), Starship Storm (16) Winning Trainer: Teresa M Pompay – Owner: Klaravich Stables, Inc. and Lawrence, William H. $0.50 Pick 4 (11/3,7/11/5) Paid $4,223.00 (4OF4) $2 Double (11/5) Paid $406.40 $0.50 Pick 5 (4/11/3,7/11/5) Paid $129.80 (4OF5) $0.50 Pick 5 (4/11/3,7/11/5) Paid $29,964.00 (5OF5) $2 Exacta (5-2) Paid $153.80 $0.50 Trifecta (5-2-4) Paid $259.10 $0.10 Superfecta (5-2-4-11) Paid $571.92 $2 Exact 5 (5-2-4-11-10) Paid $19,580.20 $2 Pick 3 (7/11/5) Paid $1,222.00 (3OF3) Tampa Bay Race 2 01/11/2012 Here is a basic example of the Win Rankings improving on the ML as the top 3 Selections finished in order. The Super was filled out by the #3 which was lower ranked overall but displayed a H+ Late Profile and top ranking in the close column. # Horse Jockey Win Place Show 6 Dazzle Me Danny Allen, Jr. Ronald Dale 4.00 3.00 2.60 5 Stinging Barbaran Erik 6.20 4.40 8 Ten Storms Rodriguez Jaime 3.40 Wager Type Payoff Winning Numbers $2 Daily Double $7.20 6-6 $30,$2 Exacta $25.80 6-5 $1 Superfecta $120.40 6-5-8-3 $2 Trifecta $72.60 6-5-8 Owner:  Bruno Schickedanz Trainer:  Yvon Belsoeur Breeder:  Bruno Schickedanz (ON) Santa Anita Race 1 01/08/2012 The report excerpt below demonstrates the key angle of a lone H+ horse. In this case the #5 was playable on this factor alone but also was top ranked in Recent Speed and Close. It is positive when multiple factors are aligned when playing for value. Payoffs at 9-1 odds provide a good cushion of error when playing lower ranked horses with positive attributes. # Horse Jockey Weight Win Place Show 5 My Brite Caroline Nakatani Corey S. 123 21.40 7.40 3.20 4 Big Tsimmis Gomez Garrett K. 123 5.60 2.80 6 Kids Table Rosario Joel 123 2.40 Wager Type Payoff Winning Numbers $1 Exacta $46.20 5-4 $1 Superfecta $220.60 5-4-6-3 $1 Trifecta $109.50 5-4-6 Owner:  Bishop, Will, DeMaio, Jim and John and Nastri, Maia Trainer:  Gerard Piccioni Breeder:  Harris Farms Inc. (CA) Also Ran:  3 - Brooklyn Rose, 2 - Lady Lohr Scratched:  Swift Beauty Gulfstream Park Race 2 01/13/2012 On name alone, #8 was playable as a First Time Starter. After the Scratch of #12, the #8 was 2md ranked against a good favorite #4. There was some confirmation of potential when the #8 was bet down to 7/2 odds from the 8-1 ML but FTS's like this are playable whether other betting money shows up or not  Race 2 # Horse Jockey Win Place Show 8 Billybillwillywill Trujillo E $9.40 $4.80 $3.40 4 Schatt the Bandit Lopez P - $3.00 $2.40 2 Go Zapper Alvarez J L - - $4.20 10 Professorplumdidit Leyva J C - - - Scratched: Swidgen (12), Snow Fleet (13), Signify (14), Supah Secret (15), Goldformylady (16) Winning Trainer: Wesley A Ward – Owner: Ward, Wesley A. and Phillips, William L. $2 Double (2/8) Paid $19.00 $2 Exacta (8-4) Paid $30.40 $0.50 Trifecta (8-4-2) Paid $36.25 $0.10 Superfecta (8-4-2-10) Paid $182.04 Aquduct Race 4 01/13/2012 This race contains a number of experienced horses and First Time Starters. As a FTS, #7 presented a positive profile by ranking in the top 4 WIN and with a top T/J ranking. There is a degree of speculation in the  assessment of FTS's but if the odds are favourable, they are playable. In this case a nice $29 win payoff resulted. ce 4ace 6 # Horse Jockey Win Place Show 7 Fast Fleet Cat Garcia Alan $29.20 $12.20 $6.70 12 Sunny Desert Dominguez Ramon A. - $6.30 $4.50 1 Bonatini Ortiz, Jr. Irad - - $4.20 4 River's End Carr D - - - Scratched: T Note (2) Winning Trainer: Chris J. Englehart – Owner: Wachtel Stable $1 Trifecta Box Paid $454.50 $2 Exacta (7-12) Paid $181.00 $2 Trifecta (7-12-1) Paid $909.00 $0.10 Superfecta (7-12-1-4) Paid $861.20 $2 Double (4/7) Paid $122.00 $2 Pick 3 (2/4/7) Paid $345.00 (3OF3) Aquduct Race 6 01/13/2012 The SP column is a key consideration in the assessment of any race. It provides an indication of how many horses are "fast enough to win". FTS's have a better chance for victory when the horses with experience haven't run that fast. In this race. there was only one X in the SP column.Of the 3 FTS horses presented, #5 and #4 had positive WIN Rankings. The $101 Win result below for #4 shows the value of the Rankings on FTS's as the bettors in this race gave the winner no shot but the rankings and odds made it worth a play. ace 6 # Horse Jockey Win Place Show 4 Frisky Warrior Perez L E $101.50 $37.00 $14.80 11 Furios Tempo Studart M - $9.30 $4.80 6 Blake Street Bully Junior Alvarado - - $3.00 10 Timothy's Boy Carr D - - - Scratched: Raytessa (8) Winning Trainer: Ralph D'Alessandro – Owner: Ralph D'Alessandro $1 Trifecta Box Paid $2,316.00 $2 Exacta (4-11) Paid $985.00 $2 Trifecta (4-11-6) Paid $4,632.00 $0.10 Superfecta (4-11-6-10) Paid $3,858.65 $2 Double (4/4) Paid $230.00 $2 Pick 3 (7/4/4) Paid $6,948.00 (3OF3) Tampa Bay Race 4 01/13/2012 This is an example of the Triple XXX highlight. Notwithstanding the relatively low Win Ranking, Class, Pace and Speed Profiles aligned with the #2 horse. This type of play is not appropriate at low odds but when presented at 10-1, it merits a wager. It should also be noted that #4, a key horse was scratched from this race. ace 4 # Horse Jockey Win Place Show 2 Kabob Spieth S $23.20 $7.80 $4.00 8 Tango Whiskey Coa D - $4.00 $3.00 5 Ben Ben Mechon Barbaran E - - $3.00 7 Alisa's Engineer Jurado E - - - 6 Awesome Review Serpa A - - - Scratched: Vapor Trace (4) Winning Trainer: William R Helmbrecht – Owner: Lynda G Lail $0.50 Pick 3 (1/2/2) Paid $102.60 (3OF3) $2 Exacta (2-8) Paid $125.00 $0.50 Trifecta (2-8-5) Paid $81.70 $0.10 Superfecta (2-8-5-7) Paid $69.20 $2 Exact 5 (2-8-5-7-6) Paid $5,182.40 $2 Double (2/2) Paid $97.40 Tampa Bay Race6 01/13/2012 Below is an another example of the lone CL X (after scratches). It is usually preferred to see some other confirming factor but class changes can be more significant for maidens. In this case, #6 was moving from a major circuit to Tampa Bay and was coming off a layoff. Again, this factor is best played when the odds offer good value. ace 6 # Horse Jockey Win Place Show 6 Scudero Cotto, Jr. P L $27.00 $13.20 $6.80 4 Purincat Guidry M - $3.40 $2.80 10 Delivered Beaucamp L - - $5.40 7 N. B. A. Money Goncalves L R - - - Scratched: Soul of the Moon (11), Manly (12), Rose Brier (13), Rojo Cielo (14) Winning Trainer: Dennis J Manning – Owner: Dennis J Manning $0.50 Pick 4 (2/2/2,3,6/6) Paid $2,846.60 (4OF4) $0.50 Pick 3 (2/6/6) Paid $298.35 (3OF3) $2 Exacta (6-4) Paid $142.40 $0.50 Trifecta (6-4-10) Paid $307.50 $0.10 Superfecta (6-4-10-7) Paid $191.93 $2 Double (6/6) Paid $113.20 The above examples do not represent all of the highlights of the results for one week of Horsewin Reports but they provide good insight into the type of plays that can be generated with the analysis provided. Also, keep in mind that there are losing results that will be experienced between wins. Future Blog Posts will cover other topics such as the Reports In-The-Money Selections, Trainer/Jockey Ratings, Key Horse Profiles In Red and Gold and  Probabilities with Value.