Tuesday, January 31, 2012

Horsewin Results Sample to January 29 2012


Below is the most recent update and analysis of results for published selections from Horsewin Reports. While the win % are moving closer to the expected norm of 30%, the payoffs are lagging. A flat bet profit is not possible with these results. There are some good returns available on selected races. I estimate the true value on the selections as 3-1 for a top pick (2-1 in a small field), 5-1 for a 2nd pick, 8-1 for 3rd pick and 10-1 for 4th pick. In small fields which are fairly frequent at AQU and SA, rarely are these odds available; however, when there is a larger field, the opportunities to play at value odds are much more frequent.


It is interesting to note that the total win % for the top 4 selections is quite high. Multiple race bets may present the best chance for profits, notwithstanding the higher risk.

HORSEWIN WEEKEND RESULTS FOR Dec 26 2011- Jan 29 2012



WIN SUMMARY
Track Races TOP Col 1  ODDS 2ND 2ND ODDS 3RD 3RD ODDS 4TH 4TH ODDS TOTAL
Wins Win %
Wins Win % Wins Win % Wins Win % Win %
AQU 226 78 34.5% 1.6 46 20.4% 3.2 29 12.8% 3.2 25 11.1% 7.3 78.8%
GP 275 68 24.7% 2.2 47 17.1% 3.8 41 14.9% 5.8 25 9.1% 7.1 65.8%
SA 198 55 27.8% 1.9 31 15.7% 2.7 28 14.1% 4.7 17 8.6% 5.9 66.2%
TAM 123 39 31.7% 1.9 27 22.0% 3 13 10.6% 5 8 6.5% 9 70.7%


PLACE SUMMARY
TOP  ODDS 2ND  ODDS
PL

PL

AQU 226 44 19.5% 2.3 38 16.8% 4.2
GP 275 48 17.5% 2.8 38 13.8% 5.3
SA 198 38 19.2% 2.9 38 19.2% 4.3
TAM 123 18 14.6% 2.6 22 17.9% 3.3

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