Tuesday, January 17, 2012

MAIDEN RACES - A Key Source of Value


MAIDEN RACES - A Key Source of Value

HORSEWIN provides analysis that compares the relative strength of past performances with the projected potential of First Time Starters (FTS). Often,  FTS's are forecast to win and often the odds offered on this type of runner are generous. It is agreed that gambling on this assessment is a higher risk endeavor, but the results achieved with this approach have been strong. Some Horseplayers advocate playing these types of runners when "smart money" shows up. Take the opposite approach and play these horses at higher odds (5-1 or greater).  As the information to make this assessment of FTS's, is not readily available to other Horse Players, this is an area where HORSEWIN subscribers have an edge. Below is an example of this edge in action.

Gulfstream Park - Race 10 01/16/2012


In this situation, a Christophe Clement Firster was established at 6-1 in the ML and actually went off at higher odds. The Horsewin assessment was that this Firster could beat this field of more experienced runners and he did at 9-1 odds. The 2nd Ranked #1 finished 3rd and the other Firster, #11, which was ranked 3rd , finished fourth. The 2nd Place finisher , #6 , was not as well ranked on past  performance but some expected improvement based on the 4-1 ML and the Mott trainer connection . In the Horsewin  Handicapping Guide , it is expressed that Favourites are logical inclusions when playing Ex, Tri's etc as the In The Money %'s are strong. However, consistent with the value approach of looking for horses to bet at a good price (higher odds), your keys in these types of bets should be overlays such as the #5 in this race.

Pedigree is one of the important parts of the analysis of First Time Starters. The #5 in this race is by the Sire English Crossing whose offspring are showing turf promise with the results of his first crop.




#HorseJockeyWeightWinPlaceShow
5Easy CrossingCastellano Javier12221.8010.807.20
6Balance the BudgetLezcano Jose1227.205.00
1Captain FantasticRose Jeremy1224.20

Wager TypePayoffWinning NumbersPool
$1 Pick 3$1,008.601-3-5 (3 Correct)$49,150
$1 Pick 4$7,238.401/12-1-3-5 (4 Correct)$178,984
Pick 5$105.608-1/12-1-3-5 (4 Correct)N/A
Pick 5$9,695.908-1/12-1-3-5 (5 Correct)$76,057
6J$5,994.2112-8-1/12-1-3-5 (6 Correct) (Carryover: $39960)$24,976
$2 Daily Double$165.003-5$97,156
$2 Exacta$112.205-6$243,266
$1 Superfecta$1,737.505-6-1-11$99,524
$1 Trifecta$234.205-6-1$153,455
$1 Z5$10,848.005-6-1-11-7$7,098
Owner: Preston Stables LLC
Trainer: Christophe Clement
Breeder: Mrs. Arturo Peralta Ramos (KY)
Also Ran: 11 - Quiet Rebel, 7 - Fortunate Bill, 3 - Silver Wings, 8 - Situational Ethics, 
2 - Dupes, 4 - In the Midnight, 12 - I Cat, 10 - Fly Ride, 9 - Yes He's Trouble
Scratched: The Deaconator, Power Emblem, I Captivate Myself

For additional, information on the Horsewin Handicap approach and a Free Trial visit www.Horsewin.ca





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