Tuesday, January 17, 2012

Horsewin Weekend Results

Results and Probabilities

Horsewin Weekend Results for Jan 15-16 2012

Below is a summary that provides a good overview of results from WIN Selections in the Horsewin Report.
Two days of results is a small sample and some anomalies can be identified. Win % for the TOP Selection is usually in the 30 % range. SA and TAM were very formful on these 2 days as reflected in the ODDS of 1.6 and 2.7. Also the TOTAL Win % for SA is aided by the smaller fields, as  often the TOP 4 Selections comprise more than half of the field.

Wins - Probabilities - Profit

Using the Value Formula from the www.horsewin.ca website, we can test these results for Profit and project what WIN % and ODDS are required to show gains from betting.

AQU :  WIN% - (38.9) x ODDS  (1.5)- (100 - WIN % (38.9)) = 1.14% Profit - Just slightly more than Break Even or a poor proposition for gambling.

GP : WIN % (27.3) x ODDS (1.9) - (100 - WIN % (27.3))  =  -20.83% Loss

SA : WIN % (44.4) x ODDS (1.6) - (100 - WIN %) =  15.44% Profit

TAM : WIN% (55) x ODDS (2.7) - (100 - WIN %) = 103.5% Profit

The examples above show the importance of WIN % and ODDS. Even when you cashing more tickets, if the odds are not great enough then a loss can be expected.

A 30 Win % is usually expected. At this rate, ODDS greater than 5/2 or 2.5 to 1 are required to show a reasonable profit :

30% x 2.5 - 70 = 5%
30% x 3 - 70 = 20%

A 1/2 change in ODDS makes a significant difference in profit in the long run.

With this in mind, it is important to try to find horses with a profile that can win the race at odds that will pay for the losing propositions. These horses are usually referred to as value horses. Horsewin has a source for value plays which are described in another Blog Post - MAIDEN RACES - A Source of Value.

Multi- Race Bets and Probabilities

Some attractive pay-offs are available from multiple race bets such as Doubles, Pick 3's, 4's, 5's and 6's.

Here is the probability picture for a Pick 3 if you have a 50% win rate (e.g. Top 2 Selections):

1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 = 1/8 or 12.5%

Even at 66% win rate the probability looks like this:

2/3 x 2/3 x 2/3 = 8/27 or 29.6%

Of course probabilities decrease as you add additional races.

Keep these probabilities in mind when playing multiple race bets as a significant bankroll is required (between wins) to sustain this type of action.

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