Sunday, January 15, 2012

Results with HORSEWIN Reports

Unfortunately, after handicapping and analysis of results, there is very little  time left for sharing some of the Horsewin Report Highlights and how the information works in practice.

Here is a look back at some examples from last Saturday through Friday. (01/07 to 01/13 / 2012). The handicapping approach will be identified in each example and as you will see, the information provided in Horsewin Reports can be used in a number of ways to identify actual plays.

The approach that is always recommended is to avoid overbet favorites. Yes, the betting public's choices win more than 33% of the time on average but the payoffs are too low to make a profit. Do not be concerned or discouraged when you get beat by a favorite. Races with overbet favourites can be passed unless you have an exotic or multiple race bet or a "beat the favourite" pick that offers good value. If you play horses with good profiles at higher odds, you should win frequently enough to gain profits.

Also, keep in mind the big picture of handicapping. In my view, about 1/3 of winners can be identified with basic handicapping. Favorites will usually be found in this group. Another 1/3 of winners can be identified through less obvious methods. In this group value plays are likely to be found. The remaining 1/3 of races are difficult if not impossible to pick. Some of the winners in this group will keep you going back to your form to find out how you could pick one of these and you may still be left scratching your head.

The fact that there is a predictability in horse racing makes it the greatest gambling game. If you study all forms of gaming, most present random outcomes. Horse racing is not random.

Race 1 Aqueduct  01/07/2012

Here is an example where the win rankings produce 2 logical favorites in the top 3 but also include a 20-1 Morning Line Horse. When the longshot came 3rd, a nice Trifecta resulted when played with the other top 3 picks. You will see examples of a lone CL (Class) designation such as #7 highlighted in another result . In this case, the 7 was a scratch.

Poppa's Pick
Cohen D
Drink With Pride
Alvarado J
Leap Day
Rodriguez J I
The Zipster
Luzzi M J

Scratched: Giopi (IRE) (7)
Winning Trainer: David Jacobson – Owner: Drawing Away Stable and Jacobson, David
$1 Trifecta Box Paid $64.50
$2 Exacta (6-3) Paid $18.20
$2 Trifecta (6-3-1) Paid $129.00
$0.10 Superfecta (6-3-1-9) Paid $23.22

Race 2 Gulfstream Park 01/07/2012

In this Race, #6, the top ranked horse, displayed a number of strong attributes in the analysis presented. The strongest indicator beyond the top rating was the H+ H+ Early-Late Profile. These horses appear infrequently and win at over a 50% rate. One example at Saratoga last August paid  higher than 20-1 odds. Surprisingly, #6 in this race paid a generous $8 and was followed home by the 2nd pick, at 15-1 ML, for $111 Ex. 

Star Distinction
Rivera II J A
Starship Romeo
Jara F
Side Party Ralph
Leyva J C
Maragh R

Scratched: Hertzel (1)
Winning Trainer: Daniel Pita – Owner: Tabraue, Brenda and Blue Top Holding Stables
$2 Exacta (6-8) Paid $111.20
$0.50 Trifecta (6-8-4) Paid $174.35
$0.10 Superfecta (6-8-4-3) Paid $115.69

Aqueduct Race 3 01/11/2012 

This is an example of a Top Win Selection overlay with #7 picked 1st over a very strong entry. I usually look at these situations as a good betting opportunity but cover the favorite winning with an Ex. Box and key on a win bet on the top pick overlay. Of course other betting opportunities are also available with Tri's , Doubles and multiple race plays.

7Time Marches OnGarcia A$14.00$3.90$3.00
1Deflate the Bubble / Zero YieldCohen D / Dominguez R A-$2.20$2.10
1Deflate the Bubble / Zero YieldCohen D / Dominguez R A-$2.20$2.10
5Dear ElizabethVelasquez C H---
6Westside SingerLuzzi M J---
Winning Trainer: Chris J Englehart – Owner: My Purple Haze Stables and Wachtel Stable
$2 Pick 3 (3/5/7) Paid $134.00 (3OF3)
$2 Double (5/7) Paid $31.40
$2 Exacta (7-1) Paid $23.80
$2 Trifecta (7-1-5) Paid $32.60
$2 Trifecta (7-1-6) Paid $83.00

Gulfstream Park Race 7 01/11/2012

In this Race, the overlay #10 at 6-1 ML was my top pick with also a XXX rating. The credentials on #7 were also strong and it is noteworthy that in the Scoring, there is only a 12 point difference. A 50 point gap from 1st to 2nd is considered significant. The #7 took the majority of the money as favorite and didn't disappoint but the #10 came second and an Exacta Box as described earlier saved the day. It is also noteworthy that the Tri and Super were almost in order. Also, #4  the 3rd place finisher displayed the lone H+ which is another angle for play. In this case, all of the significant indicators aligned and a top 3 box was good for the Exacta and Tri.

Race 7
7GangsterontherunCorrales F R$4.60$3.20$2.40
10Bossman Blue'sMaragh R-$4.40$3.40
4Candi's HaloJurado L--$3.80
9SubtitlesRocco, Jr. J---
Scratched: Under Contract (3)
Winning Trainer: Wesley A Ward – Owner: Marco Thoroughbred Corp. and Ward, Wesley
$2 Double (11/7) Paid $130.80
$2 Pick 3 (4/11/7) Paid $380.40 (3OF3)
$2 Exacta (7-10) Paid $16.80
$0.50 Trifecta (7-10-4) Paid $16.15
$0.10 Superfecta (7-10-4-9) Paid $16.54

Gulfstream Park Race 9 01/11/2012

Maiden Races on Dirt and Turf are also a source of good results as Horsewin applies a unique analysis to these races that includes an assessment of FTS (First Time Starters). At one time, these races may have been a pass for play as too risky with the unknowns of unraced horses. Now with the knowledge that has been developed, these races are excellent source of overlays.

In the example below, after scratches of 13-16 horses, the New Win Rankings were 5-10-9-2-3 with the #4 as a key horse highlight. In a future Blog Post, we will be discussing the Key Horse Highlights but the bottom line is that any top ranked horse is a play, whether highlighted or not. The tote board lit up with a nice 6-1 top ranked win in the #5 and the 4th ranked FTS #2 came in 2nd at very long odds for a $153 Ex and the #4 3rd for a $259 $.50 Tri.

Race 9
5Commitment LetterAlvarez J L$14.40$7.80$4.60
2American DoeBravo J-$11.20$6.80
4BrianLezcano J--$3.60
11Mr E PhilipSolis A O---
10JardunPrado E S---
Scratched: Blue Creek (13), Winston C (14), Mambo Boom (15), Starship Storm (16)
Winning Trainer: Teresa M Pompay – Owner: Klaravich Stables, Inc. and Lawrence, William H.
$0.50 Pick 4 (11/3,7/11/5) Paid $4,223.00 (4OF4)
$2 Double (11/5) Paid $406.40
$0.50 Pick 5 (4/11/3,7/11/5) Paid $129.80 (4OF5)
$0.50 Pick 5 (4/11/3,7/11/5) Paid $29,964.00 (5OF5)
$2 Exacta (5-2) Paid $153.80
$0.50 Trifecta (5-2-4) Paid $259.10
$0.10 Superfecta (5-2-4-11) Paid $571.92
$2 Exact 5 (5-2-4-11-10) Paid $19,580.20
$2 Pick 3 (7/11/5) Paid $1,222.00 (3OF3)
Tampa Bay Race 2 01/11/2012

Here is a basic example of the Win Rankings improving on the ML as the top 3 Selections finished in order. The Super was filled out by the #3 which was lower ranked overall but displayed a H+ Late Profile and top ranking in the close column.

6Dazzle Me DannyAllen, Jr. Ronald Dale
5StingingBarbaran Erik
8Ten StormsRodriguez Jaime

Wager TypePayoffWinning Numbers
$2 Daily Double$7.206-6
$30,$2 Exacta$25.806-5
$1 Superfecta$120.406-5-8-3
$2 Trifecta$72.606-5-8
Owner: Bruno Schickedanz
Trainer: Yvon Belsoeur
Breeder: Bruno Schickedanz (ON)

Santa Anita Race 1 01/08/2012

The report excerpt below demonstrates the key angle of a lone H+ horse. In this case the #5 was playable on this factor alone but also was top ranked in Recent Speed and Close. It is positive when multiple factors are aligned when playing for value. Payoffs at 9-1 odds provide a good cushion of error when playing lower ranked horses with positive attributes.

5My Brite CarolineNakatani Corey S.12321.407.403.20
4Big TsimmisGomez Garrett K.1235.602.80
6Kids TableRosario Joel1232.40

Wager TypePayoffWinning Numbers
$1 Exacta$46.205-4
$1 Superfecta$220.605-4-6-3
$1 Trifecta$109.505-4-6
Owner: Bishop, Will, DeMaio, Jim and John and Nastri, Maia
Trainer: Gerard Piccioni
Breeder: Harris Farms Inc. (CA)
Also Ran: 3 - Brooklyn Rose, 2 - Lady Lohr
Scratched: Swift Beauty

Gulfstream Park Race 2 01/13/2012

On name alone, #8 was playable as a First Time Starter. After the Scratch of #12, the #8 was 2md ranked against a good favorite #4. There was some confirmation of potential when the #8 was bet down to 7/2 odds from the 8-1 ML but FTS's like this are playable whether other betting money shows up or not 

Race 2
8BillybillwillywillTrujillo E$9.40$4.80$3.40
4Schatt the BanditLopez P-$3.00$2.40
2Go ZapperAlvarez J L--$4.20
10ProfessorplumdiditLeyva J C---
Scratched: Swidgen (12), Snow Fleet (13), Signify (14), Supah Secret (15), Goldformylady (16)
Winning Trainer: Wesley A Ward – Owner: Ward, Wesley A. and Phillips, William L.
$2 Double (2/8) Paid $19.00
$2 Exacta (8-4) Paid $30.40
$0.50 Trifecta (8-4-2) Paid $36.25
$0.10 Superfecta (8-4-2-10) Paid $182.04

Aquduct Race 4 01/13/2012

This race contains a number of experienced horses and First Time Starters.
As a FTS, #7 presented a positive profile by ranking in the top 4 WIN and with a top T/J ranking. There is a degree of speculation in the  assessment of FTS's but if the odds are favourable, they are playable. In this case a nice $29 win payoff resulted.

ce 4ace 6
7Fast Fleet CatGarcia Alan$29.20$12.20$6.70
12Sunny DesertDominguez Ramon A.-$6.30$4.50
1BonatiniOrtiz, Jr. Irad--$4.20
4River's EndCarr D---
Scratched: T Note (2)
Winning Trainer: Chris J. Englehart – Owner: Wachtel Stable
$1 Trifecta Box Paid $454.50
$2 Exacta (7-12) Paid $181.00
$2 Trifecta (7-12-1) Paid $909.00
$0.10 Superfecta (7-12-1-4) Paid $861.20
$2 Double (4/7) Paid $122.00
$2 Pick 3 (2/4/7) Paid $345.00 (3OF3)

Aquduct Race 6 01/13/2012

The SP column is a key consideration in the assessment of any race. It provides an indication of how many horses are "fast enough to win". FTS's have a better chance for victory when the horses with experience haven't run that fast. In this race. there was only one X in the SP column.Of the 3 FTS horses presented, #5 and #4 had positive WIN Rankings. The $101 Win result below for #4 shows the value of the Rankings on FTS's as the bettors in this race gave the winner no shot but the rankings and odds made it worth a play.

ace 6
4Frisky WarriorPerez L E$101.50$37.00$14.80
11Furios TempoStudart M-$9.30$4.80
6Blake Street BullyJunior Alvarado--$3.00
10Timothy's BoyCarr D---
Scratched: Raytessa (8)
Winning Trainer: Ralph D'Alessandro – Owner: Ralph D'Alessandro
$1 Trifecta Box Paid $2,316.00
$2 Exacta (4-11) Paid $985.00
$2 Trifecta (4-11-6) Paid $4,632.00
$0.10 Superfecta (4-11-6-10) Paid $3,858.65
$2 Double (4/4) Paid $230.00
$2 Pick 3 (7/4/4) Paid $6,948.00 (3OF3)

Tampa Bay Race 4 01/13/2012

This is an example of the Triple XXX highlight. Notwithstanding the relatively low Win Ranking, Class, Pace and Speed Profiles aligned with the #2 horse. This type of play is not appropriate at low odds but when presented at 10-1, it merits a wager. It should also be noted that #4, a key horse was scratched from this race.

ace 4
2KabobSpieth S$23.20$7.80$4.00
8Tango WhiskeyCoa D-$4.00$3.00
5Ben Ben MechonBarbaran E--$3.00
7Alisa's EngineerJurado E---
6Awesome ReviewSerpa A---
Scratched: Vapor Trace (4)
Winning Trainer: William R Helmbrecht – Owner: Lynda G Lail
$0.50 Pick 3 (1/2/2) Paid $102.60 (3OF3)
$2 Exacta (2-8) Paid $125.00
$0.50 Trifecta (2-8-5) Paid $81.70
$0.10 Superfecta (2-8-5-7) Paid $69.20
$2 Exact 5 (2-8-5-7-6) Paid $5,182.40
$2 Double (2/2) Paid $97.40
Tampa Bay Race6 01/13/2012

Below is an another example of the lone CL X (after scratches). It is usually preferred to see some other confirming factor but class changes can be more significant for maidens. In this case, #6 was moving from a major circuit to Tampa Bay and was coming off a layoff. Again, this factor is best played when the odds offer good value.

ace 6
6ScuderoCotto, Jr. P L$27.00$13.20$6.80
4PurincatGuidry M-$3.40$2.80
10DeliveredBeaucamp L--$5.40
7N. B. A. MoneyGoncalves L R---
Scratched: Soul of the Moon (11), Manly (12), Rose Brier (13), Rojo Cielo (14)
Winning Trainer: Dennis J Manning – Owner: Dennis J Manning
$0.50 Pick 4 (2/2/2,3,6/6) Paid $2,846.60 (4OF4)
$0.50 Pick 3 (2/6/6) Paid $298.35 (3OF3)
$2 Exacta (6-4) Paid $142.40
$0.50 Trifecta (6-4-10) Paid $307.50
$0.10 Superfecta (6-4-10-7) Paid $191.93
$2 Double (6/6) Paid $113.20
The above examples do not represent all of the highlights of the results for one week of Horsewin Reports but they provide good insight into the type of plays that can be generated with the analysis provided. Also, keep in mind that there are losing results that will be experienced between wins.

Future Blog Posts will cover other topics such as the Reports In-The-Money Selections, Trainer/Jockey Ratings, Key Horse Profiles In Red and Gold and  Probabilities with Value.

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